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Online Signals of Extremist Mobilisation

This study underscores that understanding and predicting extremist mobilisation requires focusing on specific behavioural indicators such as talk of violence and logistics.

Taken from the paper:

Abstract:

Psychological theories of mobilisation tend to focus on explaining people’s motivations for action, rather than mobilization (“activation”) processes. To investigate the online behaviours associated with mobilisation, we compared the online communications data of 26 people who subsequently mobilised to right-wing extremist action and 48 people who held similar extremist views but did not mobilize (N = 119,473 social media posts).

In a three-part analysis, involving content analysis (Part 1), topic modeling (Part 2), and machine learning (Part 3), we showed that communicating ideological or hateful content was not related to mobilisation, but rather mobilisation was positively related to talking about violent action, operational planning, and logistics.

Our findings imply that to explain mobilisation to extremist action, rather than the motivations for action, theories of collective action should extend beyond how individuals express grievances and anger, to how they equip themselves with the “know-how” and capability to act.

Conclusion:

In conclusion, we suggest that understanding extremist mobilisation and the initiation of action requires different theorising than radicalisation (or support for extremist collective action)—as they involve different processes (or at least different phases of a process). Our findings suggest that people who are intent on mobilising to extremist action are likely to post content about violent actions, operational planning, and logistics, as well as “leaking” emotional intensity through paralinguistic cues. In contrast, both people who support extremist action but are not intent on mobilising, and people who are, post-ideological and hateful content, so this content cannot help elucidate the mobilisation process. To enable accurate explanation and prediction of mobilisation, theories of collective action and mobilisation need to describe the behaviours and conditions that lead to a radicalised individual passing a psychological tipping point that enables action. In turn, these insights and methods may help law enforcement personnel to identify the “needles” of terrorism in an ever-growing “haystack” of extremist content.

Authors: Olivia Brown, Laura G. E. Smith, Brittany Davidson, Adam Joinson
Do smartphone usage scales predict behavior?

Understanding how people use technology remains important, particularly when measuring the impact this might have on individuals and society. However, despite a growing body of resources that can quantify smartphone use, research within psychology and social science overwhelmingly relies on self-reported assessments. These have yet to convincingly demonstrate an ability to predict objective behavior. Here, and for the first time, we compare a variety of smartphone use and ‘addiction’ scales with objective behaviors derived from Apple's Screen Time application. While correlations between psychometric scales and objective behavior are generally poor, single estimates and measures that attempt to frame technology use as habitual rather than ‘addictive’ correlate more favorably with subsequent behavior. We conclude that existing self-report instruments are unlikely to be sensitive enough to accurately predict basic technology use related behaviors. As a result, conclusions regarding the psychological impact of technology are unreliable when relying solely on these measures to quantify typical usage.

(From the journal abstract)


Ellis, D. A., Davidson, B. I., Shaw, H., & Geyer, K. (2019). Do smartphone usage scales predict behavior? International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, 130, 86–92.

Authors: David Ellis, Brittany Davidson, Heather Shaw, Kristoffer Geyer
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhcs.2019.05.004
Fuzzy constructs in technology usage scales

The mass adoption of digital technologies raises questions about how they impact people and society. Associations between technology use and negative correlates (e.g., depression and anxiety) remain common. However, pre-registered studies have failed to replicate these findings. Regardless of direction, many designs rely on psychometric scales that claim to define and quantify a construct associated with technology engagement. These often suggest clinical manifestations present as disorders or addictions. Given their importance for research integrity, we consider what these scales might be measuring. Across three studies, we observe that many psychometric scales align with a single, identical construct despite claims they capture something unique. We conclude that many technology measures appear to measure a similar, poorly defined construct that sometimes overlaps with pre-existing measures of well-being. Social scientists should critically consider how they proceed methodologically and conceptually when developing psychometric scales in this domain to ensure research findings sit on solid foundations.


Brittany I. Davidson, Heather Shaw, David A. Ellis, (2022) Fuzzy constructs in technology usage scales, Computers in Human Behavior, Volume 133,

Authors: Brittany Davidson, Heather Shaw, David Ellis
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2022.107206
The problem with the internet: An affordance-based approach for psychological research on networked technologies

The internet is often viewed as the source of a myriad of benefits and harms. However, there are problems with using this notion of “the internet” and other high-level concepts to explain the influence of communicating via everyday networked technologies on people and society. Here, we argue that research on social influence in computer-mediated communication (CMC) requires increased precision around how and why specific features of networked technologies interact with and impact psychological processes and outcomes. By reviewing research on the affordances of networked technologies, we demonstrate how the relationship between features of “the internet” and “online behaviour” can be determined by both the affordances of the environment and the psychology of the user and community. To achieve advances in this field, we argue that psychological science must provide nuanced and precise conceptualisations, operationalisations, and measurements of “internet use” and “online behaviour”. We provide a template for how future research can become more systematic by examining how and why variables associated with the individual user, networked technologies, and the online community interact and intersect. If adopted, psychological science will be able to make more meaningful predictions about online and offline outcomes associated with communicating via networked technologies.


Olivia Brown, Laura G.E. Smith, Brittany I. Davidson, David A. Ellis,(2022) The problem with the internet: An affordance-based approach for psychological research on networked technologies, Acta Psychologica, Volume 228. 

Authors: Olivia Brown, Brittany Davidson, Laura G. E. Smith, David Ellis
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actpsy.2022.103650
Online risk signals of offline terrorist offending

There has been a rise in the number of terrorist incidents in which social media use has been implicated in the planning and execution of the attack. Efforts to identify online risk signals of terrorist offending is challenging due to the existence of the specificity problem– that while many people express ideologically and hateful views, very few go on to commit terrorist acts. Here, we demonstrate that risk signals of terrorist offending can be identified in a sample of 119,473 online posts authored by 26 convicted right-wing extremists and 48 right-wing extremists who did not have convictions. Combining qualitative analysis with computational modelling, we show that it is not ideological or hateful content that indicates the risk of an offence, but rather content about violent action, operational planning, and logistics. Our findings have important implications for theories of mobilization and radicalization.

(From the journal abstract)


Brown, O., Smith, L. G. E., Davidson, B. I., Racek, D., & Joinson, A. (2023) Online risk signals of offline terrorist offending. PsyArXiv https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/hej3r

Authors: Olivia Brown, Adam Joinson, Laura G. E. Smith, Brittany Davidson
https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/hej3r

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