Conspiracy Theories and Extremism: Meta-Analysis of Psychological, Cognitive and Personality Correlates of Conspiracy Beliefs

Conspiracy theories (CTs) constitute explanations for important events that involve secret plots by powerful and malevolent groups (e.g., Goertzel, 1994). Correspondingly, conspiracy beliefs are defined as beliefs in secretive, intentional, and malevolent behaviours of one or more actors (Bierwiaczonek et al., 2021). This analysis sets out the state-of-the-art knowledge on risk and protective factors for adopting conspiracy beliefs. In particular, we ask five questions: 

1. What are the psychological, cognitive and personality risk and protective factors for conspiracy beliefs? 
2. Are there any differences in risk and protective factors when examining specific types of conspiracy theories? 
3. Are there any differences in risk and protective factors when it comes to COVID-19 vs non-COVID-19 conspiracy theories?
4. Are there any differences in effect sizes when examining different types of risk or protective factors on conspiracy theory beliefs?
5. What are the strongest risk and protective factors which might be targeted in prevention and intervention programs? 

Conspiracy beliefs are defined as beliefs in secretive, intentional, and malevolent behaviours of one or more actors. 

We answer these questions via a meta-analysis. Different types of conspiracy theories were included in our analysis, e.g., conspiracy beliefs pertaining to a conspiracy mentality or conspiratorial mindsets as well as specific conspiracy theories such as COVID-19 conspiracy theories, different intergroup conspiracy theories and other conspiracy theories, such as alien CTs, moon landing CT etc.

To present our results, we grouped risk and protective factors into different domains. 

1. Individual and Group Psychological Factors
2. Cognitive and Epistemic Factors
3. Personality and Personality Disorder Factors

Previous research has demonstrated differential effect sizes of risk and protective factors depending on the types of conspiracy theories that are assessed. Therefore, we examined a range of potential moderators which may affect the pattern and strength of associations. This allows us to examine whether some risk and protective factors have a particular strong effect on certain conspiracy theory beliefs.

First, we tested whether the effect sizes for risk and protective factors would significantly differ depending on whether a so-called conspiracy mentality or specific conspiracy theories were assessed.

Next, we tested for potential differential effects on COVID-19 vs all other conspiracy beliefs not related to COVID-19.

Third, we tested whether certain risk or protective factors might have a particularly strong effect on intergroup conspiracy theories vs conspiracy theories attributing secretive malevolent intentions to unspecified powerful ‘others’ who try to control ‘us’ or ‘the people’.

Lastly, we examined whether differences related to the types of the risk or protective factors had a differential impact upon overall conspiracy theory beliefs. Here, we analysed if self-report measures or cognitive tasks to assess individuals’ epistemic and cognitive dispositions, abilities or thinking styles differentially impacted upon conspiracy theory belief.

This guide comes from the full paper manuscript submitted for publication. This resource will be updated when the paper has been published. 

Study design, data analysis and findings were completed independently by the research[*er] [team] and should not be taken as representative of views held by those who fund CREST.